The World Aroud US Today!

After what was a rash of new issues in the month of January, the pace seems to have slowed down sufficiently as market pundits take stock of the rather ambiguous nature of the global theatre from a political & economic viewpoint.



Currently trying to make an accurate assessment of the global environment is like trying to tickle a trout in a fast moving stream into your frying pan, you need real expertise and need to have done it previously. I don't know much about tickling trout; but certainly will try to at least make an assessment of the global market environment*



Last week we saw Bernanke reconfirmed; but not without dissent and one of the narrowest margins since voting for the position of Lord Incumbent of the Creature from Jekyll Island began. Talking of dissent we also had Kansas City Fed President Hoenig doing just that after the Creatures’ two day meeting where they maintained their lower for longer language. Hoenig’s singular dissent however had the whole market in a tizzy as shorts ramped up, longs tried to close out, steepeners became flatteners and once again everyone jumped on the wagon of higher rates around the corner. This week however Australia surprised the market, having started to raise rates last year, consensus from pretty much all economists was for a 25bp hike and a given event. It didn’t happen and one can only imagine that the IMF admonishments to the EU and the US of the possibility of rate hikes too soon derailing whatever recovery might be on the way being heard all the way down under.



This brings us to Canada where a relatively rosy picture exists (its relative after all). Canada while not having to deal with all the issues that plagued the US market and real economy did have "stuff" to deal with. While on the whole our economy and banks look in better shape and our housing market continues to climb, nonetheless our Finance Minister saw fit to throw some cold water on any over enthusiasm that was building on our economic outlook. There seems a pattern emerging; but no evident clarity.

What is evident is that the US deficit continues to grow and President Obama and his administration have an awful lot of work to do to right the US economy and by implication the world economy and require Chinese cooperation. With the recent US arm sales to Taiwan and the impending meeting of President Obama with the Dalai Lama, I suspect that those actions do very little for betterment of relationships with one’s biggest creditor, at a time when you are increasing your debt load (where is Handsome Hank Paulson, China expert extraordinaire when one needs him?).

"If the U.S. leader chooses this time to meet the Dalai Lama, that would damage trust and cooperation between our two countries, and how would that help the United States surmount the current economic crisis?"

Zhu Weiqun, vice minister of the United Front Work Department of China's ruling Communist Party, [Reuters]

The sequitur is then the implications for & the state of the greenback. Surprisingly despite competitive devaluation, it seems at all times that its untouchable as the worlds reserve currency, and despite Moody’s warnings about the US AAA ratings potentially being in jeopardy, the question that's is there for all to ask, what is the alternative?

***Moody's warns US of credit rating fears
By Michael Mackenzie in New York and Gillian Tett in London Published: February 3 2010 19:53

Moody's Investors Service fired off a warning on Wednesday that the triple A sovereign credit rating of the US would come under pressure unless economic growth was more robust than expected or tougher actions were taken to tackle the country's budget deficit ****[ft.com]

A rather good question indeed when one considers the state of the other major currencies.

Europe is in deep doodoo with the problems of the porcine acronymed members ran by the Belgian Emperor Van Rompuy. The “PIGS” as they are affectionately referenced (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) are struggling with Greece as the evident example and problem child du jour, with concerns galore as they try and reduce their deficit as percentage of GDP from its current 12.7% to the inside 3% that’s required from the EU stability pact. It puts the whole EU in a pickle and begs who will blink first in the EU/Greece stand-off. With the wage freezes and cuts that the Greek PM has announced as he tries to bring the deficits in line, I can only imagine that the Greeks, who are well known for taking to the streets in spates of unrest, will do exactly that. What of the UK, where neither party is loved, bankers are hated and the economy continues to struggle and Cool Britannia is no longer?

So the status quo will likely continue for the foreseeable future; but lest we get too comfortable, there is a change taking place in the global paradigm and its implications for all that is currently deemed status quo.

The Creature from Jekyll Island Speaks!

At the risk of being dubbed Roubini's love child for my sometimes dour outlook over the last couple of years, let me start by saying that the economic data of late has been somewhat encouraging.

Let me then immediately point out, that clearly, we are hardly out of the woods.

Dubai World/Nakheel and its rescue by the UAE Central Bank is a very clear indication. Greece and its growing sovereign problems and the markets lacklustre response to how they will resolve them add to which the constraints of the EU's growth and stability pact, puts Brussels over a barrel.

How can they not rescue them, without forever damaging the EMU even as they own rules dictate that they cannot.

What about Austria and what we have seen with Hypo of late?

It brings our focus back to today, even as we wind down for the holidays with liquidity creeping backwards, in what has been a tumultuous year, questions galore exist on what next and all eyes on the FED.

Today the FED is likely to hold pat on its monetary stance; but with the recent foray into tri-party reverses, and as some of the QE measures coming to their natural end, the signals are probably starting to grow on how it may start dealing with the enormous amount of liquidity swilling in the system. We see the ECB finishing up on its 12 month LTRO and of course we know of jurisdictions actively hiking globally. While the market is starting to write rates higher, the futures curve is correctly of the opinion that we are looking into likely Q3 of 2010.

At all times one asks, if 1% rates back at the start of this decade led to the ensuing bubble and its consequences, what sort of implications will ZIRP have on a go forward basis. Despite that, the deep concern however is still whether all the cheap dosh has delivered what was intended. Sure we have observed some clear results from the cash for clunkers and the help for homebuyers; but as we have seen once that particular artificial support has been removed then conditions snap back to reality.

In my humble view the jury is still out. From a quick overview we are certainly in a much better place than a year ago, and while the data on the face of it looks good, the deeper reviews leaves lots of reasons for concern on how well the overall economy is performing. Lets hope that its starts to move to a deeper and more entrenched reality.



Season greetings to everyone!

My adventures in food....

Many of my friends and all of my family are aware of how keen a cook I am. My current journey through George Brown College on Saturdays is helping to elevate, not only my understanding of food; but also my abilities around techniques, style and recipes. At the same time my immersion in this topic has me pursuing charcuterie, new braising techniques and a whole bunch of other things. One of the things that I started to do a number of years ago was make my own gravalax.


I would say at this juncture I am able to create a superior product to what i can generally get in the store at a smidgin of the cost. Recently I have started to make a much better product however, by not only curing my lox for 2 to 3 days based on size; but by air drying it in my fridge for 8 to 20 hours to allow for the creation of pellicle and then cold smoking for a couple of hours at 50F. Yesterday I shared the end result of this approach with colleagues at work and it seemed to have been very well received. I am also experimenting with curing for a shorter period by using my food saver to vacuum seal and cure smaller pieces (half a side) that from all accounts should substantially shorten the cure. I also tried that with the smaller piece in the picture which delivered a firmer product with a much better colour.

There are only a couple of places that i believe provides a truly superior product and one of them is J Willy Krauch in Tangiers, Nova Scotia. Their approach is the more traditional Danish method of salting for one day and then smoking over 1 to 2 days. A truly amazing product. Great write up here. http://snipurl.com/t7wtg

Feel free to contact me if you would like my recipe.

Where and What Next?

I haven't thumbed a message on the train for some time. Is suspect part of it has to do with the inconclusive nature of the data of late as well as the fact that a direct function of that has been reflected in my market marking time. Equities while off recent highs still show resilient performance looking at the returns of the last six months, gold recently hit new highs and I imagine that the commodity currencies in particular are highly likely to take another run at recent achieved highs.

This weekend , I read two interesting pieces, one in the Globe and Mail and the second in the New York Sunday Times.

The first suggested that economists generally speaking invariably get it so wrong, that in fact we may well have a new economic nirvana ahead if we simply take a contra outlook. Now admittedly the focus was more Canadian. The second which was an editorial in the NY Sunday times pointed out a couple of rather scary numbers, that suggested that the underemployment rate was close to 17.5%.

Now note that's the underemployment rate, not unemployment rate. Its all a reflection on what's officially recorded and in the light of Fridays non-farm payroll, many would have you believe that the trend of the officially reported numbers is obviously positive. Clearly, that's one interpretation; but the brute reality is substantially different for the many that have exhausted unemployment benefits, and can no longer claim, and effectively fall of the rolls.

This however does not make them less unemployed and that number is becoming increasingly significant, to the extent that the notions of a second stimulus package or an extension of the very pervasive rescue package already underway will have to continue.

****The unemployment rate includes only jobless people who have looked for work in the past four weeks. The underemployment rate - which also includes jobless workers who have not recently looked for work and part-timers who need full-time work - reached 17.5 percent in October. And the long-term unemployment rate - the share of the unemployed population out of work for more than six months - also continues to set records. It is now 35.6 percent.

The official job-loss data also fail to take note of 2.8 million additional jobs needed to absorb new workers who have joined the labour force during the recession. When those missing jobs are added to the official total, the economy comes up short by 10.1 million jobs. *****[NY Sunday Times Editorial] http://snipurl.com/t5gxs

This rolls into the contention I have expressed previously in these comments and that is the hands of the FED will be tied for longer than they would necessarily like. Its evident that despite the massive amounts of largesse, only a few industries might have benefited and in fact many of the programmes undertaken have yet to yield fruit.

The G20 this weekend seemed to be in agreement

***The MSCI World gauge of equities in 23 developed countries increased 0.9 percent at 10:18 a.m. in London and futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index climbed 0.9 percent. Russia's 30- stock Micex Index added 2.9 percent. Gold gained 1.3 percent to $1,109.50 an ounce and crude oil jumped 2 percent. The dollar weakened against 14 of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg.

Policy makers from the U.S., U.K., Japan and 17 nations said on Nov. 7 that it's too early to withdraw spending intended to revive growth. The MSCI World has surged 66 percent since March 9 as governments spent $12 trillion, by International Monetary Fund estimates, to rescue the global economy from its first recession since World War II.

"Markets don't need to be worried that these governments and central banks are suddenly going to take away all the stimulus measures," Stuart Bennett, a senior currency strategist at Calyon in London, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. "Risk appetite should remain supported into the end of the year.". *****[Bloomberg]

We have a ways to go and this is hardly about a pessimistic outlook and more a realistic one. That would suggest to me that our markets will continue to stay range bound even as we creep higher from the lows of 13 months ago.

Dow 10,000, Infinity & Beyond!

I thought I would follow up on yesterdays late day missive.

SPX currently 19.5% above 200 day mva. Historically 20% above the 200day MA has proven to be a tough obstacle to overcome.

*During the 2002/2007 bull market, we never hit +20%.
*1986 and 1987 saw 19%/20%, but no higher.
*1982 saw the deviation briefly above 20%.
*1975 saw a marginal move above 20%.
*1943 saw the 20% deviation again prove good resistance.
*1935 and 1936 though saw the deviation above 20%.
*1933 saw the S&P 500 59% rich to its 200-day.
*1929 saw the 20% deviation again prove good resistance.
*94% S&P 500 stocks also now above their 200-day average.

You can't turn your nose at a 60% retracement from the lows and with the Dow at 10,000 again the equity community are likely celebrating the return of the heady days of the market.

Here is a very good comment picked up from Bloomy this morning.

****Intel Corp.’s sales forecast and earnings from JPMorgan Chase & Co. pushed the measure up as much as 1.6 percent to 10,027.73 yesterday. "A lot of people make fun of these milestones, but I think that it has an effect on psychology," said David Darst, the New-York based chief investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Smith Barney, which has $1.4 trillion in client assets. "That can have an effect on tipping people over to being more worried about being out of the market."*****[Bloomy]

Not so fast I say.

I suspect that there is money on the sidelines waiting to join the party; but for my purposes, I will continue to stick to the notion that we are about to enter the third leg of the W and thus currently sit at an inflection point. One of my market colleagues with many years in the business, had this to say - " I'm now thinking what's coming is leg 2 of a Nikkei-style Triple Waterfall" - which is a lot worse than my suggestion I suspect the new down leg won't reach anywhere near the lows we saw 7 months ago as buyers of dips that might not have participated in this massive run up, likely join in.

But wait one moment....last week we had punters in the Canadian market openly talking of the BoC likely raising rates sooner reflected by the sell-off in the BAX futures and we had a very violent move higher in US rates as the market started incorrectly interpreting the FED's statement as a desire to hike rates sooner than later I don't subscribe too either .

Yesterdays FED statement more accurately articulated at Alphaville this morning

*****DOLLAR HIT ON FED’S DOVEISH TONE - Posted at 04:57 by Gwen Robinson

The dollar fell on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting showed that while some committee members favoured increasing Fed purchases of financial assets to speed recovery, just one policymaker urged a reduction in buying. This overall doveish tone was echoed in the discussion of inflation, suggesting that the Fed is still a long way from raising interest rates. **** (FT Alphaville)

In Canada with the Canuckie Buckie roaring ahead (buy Cad Calls and wear diamonds, or if not sell strangles, after all recent history has shown us 12 big figures stronger from here for Funds is very do-able) the lack of an intervention desk, and the game of competitive devaluation now a fully global one (note the complete lack of vocal statements on a strong greenback policy from Geithner and the administration as the US dollar gets pilloried).

Let's look at other reasons for what might be deemed an artificially high level for equities and reasons why hikes are not likely in North America until the second half of 2010.

We have had a complete government sponsored equity market rally, we know banks are still not lending to each other despite where Libor might be as more hoarding takes place, we recognise that all the wobbly assets that are still off balance sheet will have to be brought back despite current ongoing deferrals, we know consumers are certainly not consuming as much and are certainly not borrowing as much and without the various credits and programmes , whether it was cash for clunkers or first time house buyer credits, that some of the results seen to date would have been even more woeful.

You have an FDIC almost out of cash, the FHA (Federal Housing Administration which insures mortgages with low down payments) likely requiring a bailout of its own, a much larger unemployed population than the data suggest due to the fact that benefit exhaustion rates are screaming higher and with that other impending situations, as we note Commercial Real Estate defaults increasing and with that CMBS's likewise.

But I suspect all eyes will be on equity markets as more good news comes in with Goldman easily surpassing ( not surprisingly) its EPS forecasts and I suspect BoA and CITI will show similar.

A New Forking Threshold - The magical Animal

I must admit the headlining is becoming somewhat tedious now, so that's the last time it will be used.
Its been a month since I started reading the Menu in Progress blog that provided me with the necessary inspiration to pursue my desire to make my own charcuterie. I seem to be almost there having crossed an initial threshold over the Labour Day weekend where I completed smoking my first two pork bellies after a week curing in the fridge and produced bacon that was then hand cut. I don't own a slicer...yet.


This was followed up by me trying to obtain a "magic fridge" ( a bar fridge essentially that I can use as a sanitary and temperature controlled environment for curing my products) with no luck.


However I still made a major stride forward by making my own sausage for the first time also, over a two day period. It has taken me quite a bit of time to get some of the more specific items such as the prague powder/pink salt and the hog and beef casings, as well as my temperature controller for the fridge I don't yet own.

Nonetheless, the products seem to have been very well received by a couple of friends, though I have to admit that the bacon was saltier than I had planned, so thank goodness for the Quebec maple syrup that i had added to the cure.


Now Pandora's Box is open, who knows what up next; but I have some ambitious plans , though the lack of my curing environment, has forced me to go slower and in fact it has been helpful as I continue to t eh read the excellent tome by Michael Ruhlman & Brain Polcyn - Charcuterie as my current food bible on these topics. AN excellent investment indeed.

I have added some pikkies from Picassa.

New Frontiers Ahead - Forking Good!

I seem to have gone a little crazy on the Charcuterie front of late.

I have wanted to try my hand at smoking sausages, bacon and all manner of meats for sometime; but have refrained from lack of knowledge, equipment and any number of other reasons including fear of failure and botulism.

I had a fab conversation with a young chef from what is to be a new restaurant BUCA, back in June, (the new restaurant associated with Jakobs Steak House and Brassai) as they fed us at the annual Set Sail for Hope Charity event on Toronto Island, one of my top if not my foremost event of the year. I asked the young chef if it would be possible for me to possibly use a wine fridge for curing as a more sanitary condition rather than the open area in one of the spare rooms in my basement, which while keeping a fairly consistent temperature, still had me concerned and worried about the sanitary nature of the environment. (The room is is primarily used to store dry and tin goods, extra clothes thats been packaged away, wine beer, a dusty rowing machine and any other types of stuff not in use that needs to be stored)

After quite a bit of dialogue and in particular probing on my part, I was 90% convinced that it could be done; the question was then some more research to get comfortable on exactly how I would go about this.

Luck and circumstance would seem to have delivered a path to me filled with knowledge, trials, experience success and failure and lots of pikkies through an exceptional blog if you are a "foodie" (general term) called Menu in Progress.

I say exceptional only because the writing is great, the pikkies excellent, the food very scrummy and not only are recipes provided; but there is wonderful detailing of the experiences.

So over the Simcoe Day holiday weekend I had the opportunity to visit the site a number of times and leave some comments, which were responded to by Mike who writes the blog.

This has led me to do a ton of research on what one might require to get going, for my initial attempts, which I suspect will be pancetta and bacon (start slowly).

This will provide me with the requisite time to get hold of the various equipment that I require from myriad sources. As I mentioned I may start off with bacon and pancetta; but i see a variety of sausages smoked, dried and fresh in my future as I try and advance my knowledge in this area.